Here’s a link to Jim Caple’s article on ESPN regarding how overrated the ’save’ statistic is. I think the most interesting part of the article is the idea that eventually, we may see the best relief pitcher – today’s closer – pitch the 7th/8th innings when the game is actually on the line. Caple cites a study which shows that in the last 73 seasons, a team will winning the game entering the 9th inning will win the game 95% of the time, regardless of pitching strategy (closer, closer by committee, etc).
In other words, it doesn’t really make sense to spend tons of money on a closer (unless your closer happens to be a future HOFer like Rivera or Hoffman).
So thanks, Cincinnati, for paying a guy >$8 million this year (and $35 mill for the next three), who hasn’t even pitched 50 innings, and who has already 6 blown saves. There’s nothing like spending 10% of your payroll on one guy who throws 15 pitches every three days. The team would have been just fine closing with one of their other ten relievers, rather than wayyy overspending on Francisco Cordero.
Cordero’s stats are remarkably similar to Sherrill’s…yet Sherrill is making $7 million less. Sherrill’s blown saves are easier to take, given that he’s still young and is making less than $1 million.
August 8, 2008 at 3:04 pm
OK Eric, its killing me…… Where is that turkey dude picture from?
August 8, 2008 at 4:12 pm
Dude! Its Kramer, from a Seinfeld episode where he spreads butter all over himself (using it as shaving cream/lotion), lays out on the roof of the apartment building to get a tan, falls asleep, and “bakes.” Newman was reading the book “Alive” (with the cannibalistic undertones), sees a baked Kramer, and imagines him as a turkey. Then Newman tries to eat him after Kramer accidentally spills oregano on himself. Its a good one.