Baseball Stats – the Save

Here’s a link to Jim Caple’s article on ESPN regarding how overrated the ’save’ statistic is.  I think the most interesting part of the article is the idea that eventually, we may see the best relief pitcher – today’s closer – pitch the 7th/8th innings when the game is actually on the line.  Caple cites a study which shows that in the last 73 seasons, a team will winning the game entering the 9th inning will win the game 95% of the time, regardless of pitching strategy (closer, closer by committee, etc). 

In other words, it doesn’t really make sense to spend tons of money on a closer (unless your closer happens to be a future HOFer like Rivera or Hoffman). 

So thanks, Cincinnati, for  paying a guy >$8 million this year (and $35 mill for the next three), who hasn’t even pitched 50 innings, and who has already 6 blown saves.  There’s nothing like spending 10% of your payroll on one guy who throws 15 pitches every three days.  The team would have been just fine closing with one of their other ten relievers, rather than wayyy overspending on Francisco Cordero. 

Cordero’s stats are remarkably similar to Sherrill’s…yet Sherrill is making $7 million less.   Sherrill’s blown saves are easier to take, given that he’s still young and is making less than $1 million.

Kevin Millar, King of Awesome

Obviously I’m not talking about his stats, though you must admit this has been a good year for Kevin. For those of you who haven’t been following the O’s lately, and who can blame you, there’s been a little bit of drama lately.

Danial Cabrera has been suspended for allegedly throwing at A-Rod intentionally, and Edwar Ramirez of the Yankees has been suspended for retaliating by throwing over Kevin Millar’s head. I don’t really care about any of that. If we had to mention every time Cabrera hit a batter or was ejected we’d need a whole new blog. What is really awesome about this is the quotes from my man Millar about the incident. Here they are:

“One hundred percent,” Millar said when asked if he thought the pitch was intentional. “I was upset they threw him out of the game because he’s really good hitting. He’s a cute little fella, he didn’t throw that hard and he doesn’t have very good stuff. So it’s probably a good idea they threw him out, because it probably would’ve been in Monument Park.”

“There just needs to be a thing about how to throw at a guy, that’s all. Stay in the waist-below, it’s part of baseball. You don’t want to mess with anybody’s career,” Millar said. “He doesn’t throw that hard, so it wouldn’t have hurt, but I wouldn’t have minded facing him.”

“If they can’t throw in,” Millar said, “then throw down, that’s all it is. It’s not a big deal. Ramirez tries his little heart out, but I love facing him. He doesn’t have many out pitches. [He's] fortunate he’s in the big leagues.”

And with that, I say thank you to the King of Awesome, Kevin Millar.

Bye Bye, Junior

I was fortunate to see Junior Griffey play two weeks ago…possibly for the last time?  He approved a trade with the ChiSox today.  This isn’t one of those “never met expecations” or “countdown to the next injury” posts, because those are over-done anyway, but rather, I’m just sad to see him go.  I heard his 600th HR on the radio as it happened, have seen him hit a walkoff double to win a game in extra innings, and saw him make the best defensive play I’ve ever seen in a game vs Detroit (when he was with Seattle, but that’s beside the point).

Farewell, Junior, and may ye get the ring ye seek so heartily.

Heading to the Ballpark Tonight

I’m heading out to the ballpark to see the Reds take on the Mets.  Maybe Frank knows this, but does Mr. Met ever travel with the team?  It would be sweet to see the Reds and Mets mascots duke it out, considering they are both people with a giant baseball for a head. 

Anyway, I was looking for an excuse to post this picture.  The more I think about it, the better it is.

Story of the Year

Um…did anyone see the Josh Hamilton home run rampage last night?  I did.  I’m trying to think of a word to describe it, but I don’t think that’s possible.  Maybe the closest word to describe it is “impossible.”

Here’s a link to the video compilation of his first round heroism, courtesy of the blog Awful Announcing.

If anyone needs a new favorite player to root for, he’s emphatically made his case.  He’ll also be taking over the ESPN headlines for weeks to come.

Hit Tracker

I came across an interesting website today, Hit Tracker.  Here, home run data are compiled and true home run distances are computed.  I checked out Adam Dunn, who has 26 home runs at the All-Star break.  He plays half of the time at Great American Ballpark, a field known for being a hitter’s ballpark.  Some analysts (no, I don’t have any hard evidence to back it up, but just take my word for it) discount Dunn’s hitting performance, saying that he would have far less home runs if he played in a pitcher’s park.  Checking out this site, though, proves that most of his home runs would be dingers in every ball park. 

Anyway, its a cool site to waste some time on if you’re bored (which you probably are if you are reading this).

Bold Predictions

I made a bold prediction in the comments section of Eric’s post about the Brewers making the playoffs.  I’m just watching SportsCenter right now and Buster Olney, baseball expert, just made his own bold prediction on their “Bold Predictions” segment.  One might think he’s reading this blog and stealing our content, because his bold prediction was that the Brewers will make the playoffs.  Too late, Buster!  Get your own material!  Who calls themselves “Buster”, anyway?  Is that a nickname?  Is that supposed to intimidate me?  Is that a tribute to his favorite shoes he wore as a kid?  Is he a former Newsie?

Anyway.  Because there will inevitably be more ESPN talking heads who will blantantly steal my opinions without naming me as their source, I’m going to document some more Bold Predictions, if only to awe and inspire ESPN.  Also, I will be coining the phrase “BoPre”, which, in case you can’t figure it out, is my shortening of “Bold Prediction”.  I hope you all will adopt this term on this blog.

Since the first half of the baseball season literally just ended like an hour ago (with the Mets’ 9th win in a row, I might add…let’s go Mets!), I’m going to make one BoPre for each division in baseball in the second half of the season.  Here we go….wheeee:

BoPre AL East:  The Orioles will finish over .500 this season.  If you don’t think this is bold, you need readjust your antennae and attempt to tune in to this team’s last ten years.

BoPre AL Central:  This is Jim Leyland’s final year as Tigers manager.  The ‘06 WS runners up are making up some ground as of late, but they dug themselves into too big a whole and won’t get out of it.  Leyland takes the hit (or possibly dies of old age).

BoPre AL West:  Ichiro will be traded.  I have done no research to back this up.  I have no idea how viable or possible it would be for Seattle to trade Ichiro, in fiscal terms.  This is pure speculation and, basically, a shot in the dark.  But you cannot argue it isn’t bold.

BoPre NL East:  The Mets reach the World Series.  I did not make this BoPre because I am a huge Mets fan.  I am merely of the opinion that they have the best collection of baseball players on one team in the National League.

BoPre NL Central:  Carlos Zambrano win the NL Cy Young.  He does not lead any significant statistical pitching category right now.  By season’s end, he will lead many.

BoPre NL West:  The Rockies will win the division.  This reeks of straight up what-you-talkin-bout-Willis-ness.  But the Rockies have pretty much the same team as last year and everyone else in this division is craptacular.  Even though they’re 20 games below .500, they’re not that far back.  They’re also quite bold.